How oil spike to price last seen in 14 years is causing reactions in the U.S. as Russia says sanctions to push price to $300 per barrel
Oil prices have hit $140 per barrel, a surge to their highest level in more than a decade and US stocks plummeted as the Biden administration said it would mull a potential ban on Russian energy.
Brent crude oil touched nearly $140 per barrel on Monday as the market reacted to the possibility of a ban. That’s up sharply from prices that hovered around $70 just as recently as August.
The escalating energy crisis is spooking investors on Wall Street, sending them running out of stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged by nearly 800 points — or by more than 2.3% — while the broad-based S&P 500 was down nearly 3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq index dropped more than 3.6%.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict is also driving price spikes for other commodities. Gold jumped nearly 1.8% to more than $2,000 per ounce on Monday.
$200 per barrel bet
Meanwhile, traders are now betting on $200 oil by the end of the month.
When some options traders bet in September 2021 that oil could reach $200 a barrel oil by the end of this year, those headlines were mostly in the “oddly enough” category. Now that prices hit $130 early on Monday, $200 oil by the end of March is not so unthinkable, as even major investment banks predict that a Russian oil ban would easily send prices to $150 and possibly to $200.
And now options traders have significantly increased bets that oil could hit $200 as early as this month. Traders would profit from those call options if oil prices were to rally to those levels.
According to ICE Futures Europe data compiled by Bloomberg, more than 1,200 contracts were traded on Monday for the option to buy Brent Crude future for May at $200 per barrel. As a result of active options trading in recent days, the price to buy such options has skyrocketed. For example, the $200 oil options on the May Brent futures – expiring on March 28, three days before the contract expires—saw the price for buying them surge by 152 percent to $2.39 a barrel. The price of the $150 a barrel June call option doubled, and the $180 call options surged by 110 percent, per the exchange data cited by Bloomberg.
Reactions frin The US
The price of wheat jumped 7% to $12.94 a bushel. Prices have jumped to record highs as the war interrupts shipments and prompts fears of a wheat shortage in Europe.
US gas prices have risen in tandem with oil. The national average price of a gallon of gas surpassed $4 on Monday. At the current pace, the country is likely just days away from reaching a new record high, surpassing the old mark of $4.11 per gallon established in July 2008.
As The Post previously reported, analysts warned gas prices could reach $5 per gallon – and potentially much higher – if there were further interruptions to Russian gas and oil exports.
The latest oil surge occurred at House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) were mulling a bill that would enact further economic penalties on the Kremlin in response to escalating violence in Ukraine. The legislation would ban imports of Russian oil and energy products into the US, among other measures, according to Pelosi.
An import ban would drive oil prices higher in the short term – though the effects would be “manageable” because Russia supplies less than 10% of what the US imports, according to Stewart Glickman, an energy equity analyst at CFRA Research.
Crude oil prices would likely increase about $5 to $10 per barrel in the event of an import ban, he added. But prices could surge much higher if the US and international allies pursued broader sanctions on Russian oil shipments similar to those imposed on Iran following the collapse of the nuclear deal.
So far, international sanctions on the Russian economy have largely excluded the energy sector.
“If US and Western nations get together and actually sanction Russian oil and gas volumes, then I think we’re looking at all-time highs, which would mean going above $150 a barrel,” Glickman said.
Secretary of State Tony Blinken also indicated the Biden administration was mulling an import ban. Previous sanctions targeting Russia have largely excluded the energy sector.
“We are now talking to our European partners and allies to look in a coordinated way at the prospect of banning the import of Russian oil, while making sure that there’s still an appropriate supply of oil on world markets. That’s a very active discussion as we speak,” Blinken said during a CNN appearance on Sunday.
