“Like the African adage says: where greed meets greed, mutual suspicion thrives,” Platforms Africa’s Editor, foreign affairs, Nurudeen Oyewole, writes on why so little should be expected from latest ceasefire in Sudan
After repeatedly failing ceasefires, the two warring factions in the crisis that has engulfed Sudan, the army and its rival – the paramilitary forces otherwise known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) agreed to a 72-hours tentative ceasefire on Monday, April 24, ten days after the fighting broke out. The ceasefire which was announced by the United States Secretary of States, Anthony Blinken, was part of the broader measures to initiate strong dialogue between the contending forces, give a breathing space to civilians who are trapped within the conflict zones to evacuate and create a safe zone for the evacuation of diplomats and foreign nationals in the country.
But like the previous ceasefires reached by both parties, there is no assurance this will hold for too long. In truth, factors threatening the chances of a ceasefire to hold are too conspicuous to be ignored. The rabid quest for power and subjugation of rival are the two critical factors driving both General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan-led army and General Muhammed Hamdan Dagalo-led RSF.
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Like the African adage says: where greed meets greed, mutual suspicion thrives. Al-Burhan, who by the virtue of his position as the Head Transitional Military Council (TMC) is the de facto Head of State. He seeks consolidation of his power with the quest to bring Dagalo’s RSF within the military orbit. He reckons that it would be too dangerous to leave Dagalo and his all-powerful RSF asserting influences on the streets of Sudan with new civilian administrators expected to take over as soon as all agreements are signed. Basically, he does not trust Dagalo. On the other hand, Dagalo, a de facto Deputy Head of State and a warlord of the famed Janjaweed militia, has his eyes on the topmost seat one day. Reining in his influential RSF under the military will take the shine off him and his dream will become moribund. Al-Burhan may pride himself as the Head of state, he – Dagalo has been the enforcer. More importantly, Dagalo does not trust that Al-Burhan will leave corridor of power by the time the integration between the army and RSF had taken place. He suspects that with or without civilian administrators, Al-Burhan will seek to maintain his hands on the lever of the state.
Intricately, whereas Al-Burhan and Dagalo have been slaves to their respective ambitions, neither is paying attention to the fact that they are also serving as pawns in the hands of powerful geopolitical powers
Intricately, whereas Al-Burhan and Dagalo have been slaves to their respective ambitions, neither is paying attention to the fact that they are also serving as pawns in the hands of powerful geopolitical powers, some of whom are preaching peace in the open, but instigating warring parties to crisis at the background. The unseen hands are controlling the affairs of the State. They pitch their tents with warring parties that serve their interests. They offer political, financial and military supports. And more importantly, they use their powers as remote control of the dramatic personae embroiled in the conflict. The question that easily comes to mind is: who are they?
Egypt: Media reports have it that General Al-Burhan is being supported by the neighbouring Egyptian government. Since his emergence on the leadership stage after the ouster of former Head of State, Omar Al-Bashir in 2019, not a few had watched the relationship between General Al-Burhan and the Egyptian President (himself a former military General), Abdel Fatteh El Sisi, blossoms. In fact, there are allegations that the Egyptian military intelligence took more than passing interest in the drafting of what was to culminate as the final agreement between the military and the civilian administrators expected to take over the rein of power in Sudan. Among other things, a pliable Sudanese government will no doubt be of advantage to Egypt who is keen to project its soft power in the Middle East and North Africa’s geopolitics. Also, Egypt desperately needs a unified front to counter Ethiopia’s growing incursion into the River Nile. So far, both Ethiopia and Egypt are maintaining extreme positions on the former’s ambition of drawing its hydro-electric power from the river. Egypt wants Sudan, the third country having access to River Nile to be at its side as that will help in taming Ethiopia’s adventurism in the arena.
United States: Unlike Egypt whose interest in Sudan is as plain as day, the United States of America is a bit clumsy on whose side it belongs. However, many will put a bet that Uncle Sam is rather tilted towards General Al-Burhan. At the heart of United States’ unseen hand is the deployment of every effort that will ensure that the proposed Russian Naval Base at the Port of Sudan does not materialise. If successful, the naval base will grant the Russians unfettered access to the Red Sea and challenge US-long-term hegemony within that corridor. Of greater headache for US is the fact that both Al-Burhan and Dagalo are in support of the proposed Russian Base, hence the rapid efforts of the US government in recent months to see a pliable democratic or civilian administration taking over in Sudan. Of the two contending forces however, observers are of the opinion that it is easier for US to side with Al-Burhan, especially with the support of Egypt and ensure that the Russian Naval base aspiration, remains a mirage.
Russia: Just like the United States, Russia is also trying to walk an intricate balance line in Sudan. Russia has within its radar, the two protagonists in the conflicts. Dagalo was the one dispatched to Moscow in February, 2022 to discuss the establishment of the naval base. And when Sergei Lavarov, the Russian Foreign Minister came to finalise the deal in Khartoum few months ago, reports has it that he did so with Al-Burhan. Russia is keen to do business with whichever of the two that has the upper hand in the conflict because the manifestation of the naval base will add to its military exploits in the region and a big spite on US, its archrival. However, there are observers claiming that with the long term relationship Dagalo has used its RSF to cultivate with the Russian mercenary group – the Wagner group, Kremlin may be tilted a little more to Dagalo’s side than it does for Al-Burhan. Currently, the Meroe Gold, a subsidiary of the Wagner group has access to gold exploration in Sudan and this it does under the watchful eyes of Dagalo and its RSF.
United Arab Emirates: Another active proxy actor in Sudan is the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The relationship between the UAE and Dagalo in particular has not gone unnoticed, with many asserting that it is all geared towards geopolitical influence. Through the support of the UAE Vice President, Mansour Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, Dagalo is said to have managed a foothold within the influential Middle East country.
The list of the four named countries may not be exhaustive as there are other active and passive actors elsewhere. Already, there have been talks of alliance between Dagalo and Libyan strongman, General Khalifa Haftar. Also, the sunni muslim power house, Saudi Arabia has been insinuated as being among those with interest in the crisis rocking Sudan.
it has become expedient that the African Union and other global peace arbitrators focus attention not only on the country in crisis but also these proxy hands whose influences are the fuels energising the raging inferno
As the list of the proxy hands, manipulating internal crises in Sudan and indeed Africa at large grows, it has become expedient that the African Union and other global peace arbitrators focus attention not only on the country in crisis but also these proxy hands whose influences are the fuels energising the raging inferno. Whatever is made of how these proxy hands are appeased in Sudan will go only way in how similar experiences in Libya, Central African Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso, among other countries serving as theatres of proxy wars in Africa are addressed.
Nurudeen Oyewole, Platforms Africa’s Editor, foreign affairs, writes from Ireland
