What do we know or didn’t know about the
fall of Niamey?
Why is the latest on the 7-day ultimatum given to the coupist by Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu?
What is being done, and what can done?
What are the foreign influences in Niger?
Is West Africa, and, by extension, other part Africa safe?
Dr Dayo Kayode, PhD, a public affairs analyst, and a foundation member of Platforms Africa forum, shares his thoughts on the Niger Coup, Rising Tension In West Africa, And Other Matters Arising. Excerpts;
ECOWAS is in the news again because of another coup, this time in Niger, was this coup necessary?
Well, as a way of justification, people that understands the style of governance in Africa will quickly say that, the putsch in Niger Republic can be justified.
This is more so, when one understands the Assimilation Policy of France in all the Francophone nations of the West African subregion where Niger Republic can not be excused from.
France has always been playing some oppressive dominant roles in this countries only because of one purpose – to continue to exploit their abundant natural resources with blatant impunity.
By so doing, France often ensure the enthronement of government that will always be loyal to it and allow the continued resources exploitations.
However, let us have a broader view to the above narratives:
On the 28th of July, 2023, the Head of Niger Republic’s Presidential Guard Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani declared himself Head of State after the military deposed President Mohammad Bazoum; with a strong warning against a regional and foreign interventions.
This seizure was premised on rising insecurities and lack of visible economic growth.
Despite these, other issues that might have been contributory to the fragility index of the country can be adduced to increase in foreign forces from the United States of America and France with military bases in Niger Republic.
With this, the leadership has not been able to stop the incessant activities of the insurgents from groups Ike the Al-Qaeda, Islamic States affiliates and Boko Haram. This perhaps might have less the teeming youths in the capital city – Niamey to be celebrating the coup-de-tate with the Russian flags while chanting “WAGNER”. Meaning that, they are safer in the hands of these people.
The reasons of ethnicity and acceptance of President Bazoum can also be postulated here. He is from Niger’s Arab minority with a stigma of foreign origins which the military circle predominantly composed of the larger ethnic groups might not be comfortable with. Likewise, this military circle were believed not have supported the large presence of foreign military troops and bases in their country inclusive of France’s huge investment in their mining sector. This might have contributed to the reasons why the new regime suspended the exportation of their gold and uranium to France henceforth. This they know will have serious implications on both the economy and livelihood of France.
There is also the reason that, ECOWAS inability to take strong and bitting stance against military incursions in Guinea, Burkina Faso and Mali might have emboldened the coupists.
What is happening to democracy in the West Africa region?
When it comes to democracy in West Africa subregion, the moment the democratic government there are not ready to *deliver _real_ dividends of democracy* to the people that willingly submitted their sovereignty to the government, then, there will continue to be serious threat to our democracy and unrest.
“An hungry man is an angry man”. Virtually all these goverments has weaponize poverty to the extent that, people don’t have access to good housing, medical and educational facilities inclusive of other amenities that can guarantee better livelihood sustainably
Meanwhile, these same people are seeing the few in government living in affluence, carting away their resources while at the same time, perpetuating their own coming generation into their ruling oligarchy.
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Any one that now thinks democracy will thrive within this subregion must have been living in the space.
It is however instructive that, African leaders need to do more in improving their leadership style to working for the meaningful wellbeing of their masses – they should henceforth work for the masses that willingly submitted their sovereignty to them.
The Niger coup is coming after those of Mali, Burkina Faso, all Francophone countries, is there something we don’t know, that is happening in the former French colonies?
It is basically the ‘Assimilation Policy’ of France upon all its former colonies – this I’ve tried to expatiate in my opening remarks. France is not trying to allow full independence of its former colonies.
I once read about France imposing its country’s Central Bank on all of these Francophone nations especially Cotonue.
I strongly belief that, all these countries will soon get a relief from France.
Does it look like the other Francophone countries in the region are likely to follow?
Oh yes sir. Since, they all are having the same fate, same experience and France still continue to lord it over then, the bandwagon effects will continue.
More importantly, both ECOWAS & AU are not also doing enough to ensure adherence to genuine democratic values among member nations. Examples of this abounds around us to cite.
Invariably, it’s not only the Francophone countries that might follow it is also inclusive of Anglophones.
There have been protests in Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea against the French, does it mean France is losing out in Africa?
Definitely yes. This can be well understood when one evaluates this with the level of enlightenment that people are presently exposed to.
Most of these nationals are now traveling to especially France for greener pastures and, they are seeing what is happening in that country while also give feedbacks to their people/relatives at home.
In all, France might be loosing out because, “the goat is bound to turn back against it’s traducers whenever it meets a brick wall”.
Again, when one considers the quantum of investments that China especially is having in Africa; coupled with the recent meeting of Putin with African heads of government and business leaders, France is without any hesitation loosing out of Africa
Some people are suggesting that what is happening in the Francophone countries, is a fight against imperialism, can that be true?
Well, with all intents and purposes, YES. it can be dubbed a fight against imperialism.
The more reason that, ECOWAS/Nigeria should not just jump into any war against Niger Republic because, at the end of the day, the subregion coalition might come back to regret their war actions.
The super powers are aware of whatever is happening within the Sub-Sahara Africa if not been sponsored by them while also, having their natural allies. Will which ever country(ies) involved be able to match the counter insurgency of the super powers; do we have the capacity and temerity to withstand their power play? Questions for the wise to discern.
ECOWAS’ reaction to the coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea did not yield the expected result, what accounted for that?
We should first realize that, ECOWAS is a union of sovereign states whereby each member states within the union still retains its territorial independence without any form of uncalled interference in any member state’s territorial integrity.
Equally, all member states are guilty of misrule and hence – he who comes to equity must come in clean hands.
Again, everybody has an ego to feed. No “leader” will want another sovereign state to come and lord over it; more importantly the ECOWAS recognizes territory independence and integrity of member states.
Additionally, most of the hiccups we have within the ECOWAS subregion and even in Africa as a whole has the influence of one externality or the other. Consequently, such external support will apparently affect the expected results of any peaceful interventions from ECOWAS. Meanwhile, the major factor responsible for all of these has to do with resource exploitations and control (a topic for another day).
The latest reaction by ECOWAS against the coup in Niger is an ultimatum to use force against the coup makers, are we likely to see this happen?
It might be difficult for ECOWAS to go into full war with Niger Republic. Perhaps, it’s just a bully tactic against the coup plotters
But let me quickly add this, no nation goes to war on behalf of Neocolonialists and other parasitic world powers to enforce democracy. Where have we kept the principles of _sovereign territorial integrity_ where no nation is allowed to interfere in the affairs of other nations no matter how small in size? – this I’m very sure other world powers do adhere to perfectly .Why then is ECOWAS and its current leadership crying louder than the bereaved? uranium gold bite wind.
Baffled that our Mr Tinubu has ordered the stoppage of electricity supply to the small country of Niger Republic without consultations on the historical background of the bilateral synergy. If he has, he would have known that, our supply of electricity has been a trade-off for the Nigeriens not to block/dam their own end of the river Niger as not to disable our own Jebba, Kainji and Shiroro dams which would have been very devastating to the people living around that area; inclusive of our power generation. What then happens if the new government of Niger Republic should retaliate? this is a relationship that has been on ground since the days of Gowon in Nigeria and Hamani Diori in Niger Republic.
Nigeria’s leaders should wise up.
Further, Nigeria who is presently the head of ECOWAS has more problems at his hands than to now be sponsoring war against its neighbor.
ECOWAS has no enough money to execute such a full scale war and Nigeria that can act as a big brother is economically broke and has no such money.
Likewise, can the United States of America afford to sponsor such a war at this present moment? I don’t think so.
Countries like Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso and perhaps Chad had declared their support for Niger Republic while also, Russia’s Wegner has been lurking in the corners. With all of these, the coalition are most likely to reassess their strategies of war and back out from such dastard war.
The Arewa coalition of the Norther Nigeria has again warned the Nigeria president against leading a war to Niger Republic bearing in mind that the seven states within Nigeria (Yola, Jigawa, Kebbi, Zamfara, Bornu, Sokoto and Katsina) that shares boarder with Niger Republic will suffer collosal damage both in materials and human lifes – the example of Russia-Ukraine can be evaluated.
“WAR IS NOT A TEA PARTY”.
Should the Anglophone countries be worried about what is happening in the Francophone countries?
This is very instructive because of eadership deficit.
Also, they should be weary of external influences that are prowling over Africa continent for resource exploitations and control.
IT IS BETTER TO JAW-JAW THAN TO WAR-WAR as the warring factions will still come back in the end to jaw-jaw
It is however instructive that, African leaders need to do more in improving their leadership style to working for the meaningful wellbeing of their masses – they should henceforth work for the masses that willingly submitted their sovereignty to them.
This edition of e-Discourse, a weekly event organised by Platforms Africa, a forum created by award-winning African journalist, Adeola Yusuf, is moderated by Accra, Ghana-based veteran journalist, Francis KOKUTSE
